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Beating the Number in Sports Handicapping
Our goal at DogHouseSports is to create winning experiences for our players… One could even go so far as to think of us as a sort of "playground for adults"! The most important factor in any winning sports betting strategy is the ability to "beat the number".
BEATING THE NUMBER
When one is betting football or basketball spreads and totals and laying 110 to win 100 on every bet, you would need to win 52.38% of your bets just to break even and cover the "juice" or "vigorish" you pay to the sportsbook. Let's take a look to see how the 52.38% is derived…
Required Win % = Amount Risked / (Amount Risked + Amount of Win)
Example: A line of -110 implies a risk of $110 to win $100, so…
Required win % = 110 / (110 + 100) = 110 / 210 = 52.38
How can you increase your chances of "beating the number"? For starters, you should set up an account at more than one sportsbook so that you can shop the spreads by comparing sportsbooks in our Sportsbook Guide. If you have an account at only one sportsbook, you will have no choice but to either accept the line offered, or just not bet. By having more than one sportsbook to choose from, you can compare lines and wager with the one that offers you the most advantageous opportunity to win your bet. Why would somebody bet on their favorite team at -6.5 if they could wager on the same team at -6? What if you could find that same team at -5.5? While this seems like common sense… but you'd be surprised how many players take no heed of the line they are betting on. Although estimates vary, generally speaking, simply getting an extra point adds up to 4% to your chance of winning a wager!!
Considering that you should be able to hit 50% of your games by simply "flipping a coin", that extra 4% would mean the difference between losing and making a small profit. Let's take it a step further… Nearly every online sportsbook offers a "reduced juice" special for those who are willing to put their NFL football bets in on the Friday prior to the game. Let's assume that you take advantage of these specials… Now, rather than having to hit 52.38% to break even, one could reduce "the number" to 51.22%! Don't believe me? Run the numbers through the formula above, but use -105 in place of -110…
Some Common Concerns...
If you are so good at picking winners, why do sportsbooks advertise on your site? Are they paying you to give out losing picks?
Any handicapping site that has enough traffic to justify a sportsbooks' advertising there is probably giving out more winning picks than losers. However, many bettors that use these services also play their own picks or do not follow the advice or a good money management system and the sportsbook profits in the long run. If clients of handicapping services only bet the picks they were given at recommended amounts, sportsbooks probably wouldn’t be advertising there.
Should I use a handicapping service?
That is not a question I can answer for you. To consider using a service, there are a few things for you to consider. Do you consider this recreation? Are you betting to make a profit? How much does the service cost? How many plays are you getting? How much do you bet per game? The first two questions are personal, but if you enjoy betting sports and want to try to make a profit but just don’t have the time to handicap yourself than maybe a service is right for you.
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