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Basketball Betting Strategies
1. Get to know your NBA team
Study your teams, learn their strengths and weaknesses, know their home and road records, and evaluate them objectively. Pay attention to changes in the quality of a team from one season to the next as players get older and changes occur in personnel and coaching staffs. Salary caps and free agency make it more difficult for teams to stay at the top for long periods of time, so major improvement or decline from season to season is commonplace in professional sports.
2. Value basketball betting - find low risk high reward action
Successful basketball betting requires getting value on your bets ... basically this means getting better than the "true" odds on your team. For instance, if your objective prediction for a game suggests that the Lakers should be receiving 5 points but are in fact receiving 8, then this is a value-betting proposition. In this case, the risk to reward ratio is very much in your favor, making the Lakers a strong play.
3. Bet against public opinion
Certain teams always have a strong public following. For years, the Chicago Bulls were one such team, having captured the public's admiration during the Jordan years. High-value bets can often be found by betting against these teams because the odds makers adjust the line to reflect the expected amount of public money. Thus, the underdog is often listed with better odds or a larger point spread than they realistically deserve.
4. Stay abreast of injuries
Watch the injuries, but don't overreact to them. Judge the importance of an injured player and the quality of his back up. Remember that second-string players are often highly qualified and are especially motivated when replacing a starter, so it often pays to bet on a team missing its best player. The public normally overreacts to injuries so you may find good value in this situation. However, beware of situations where there is more than one injured stud or there is an injury to the team's captain or inspirational leader.
5. Bet on motivated basketball teams
Sometimes a team doesn't play up to its potential, but at other times may play well above what is indicated by their overall record - especially in critical games. Determine how important a game is to a team. If the team has already clinched a playoff spot, they may be more focused on the post-season than the present game. Conversely, a team facing a must-win situation to make the playoffs may be highly motivated. A team out to revenge a defeat earlier in the season may also be very motivated.
6. Bet with your head, not your heart
Make an honest assessment of a team's chances, not one based on emotions. Don't bet on a team simply because it's your favorite without considering the real odds. Be selective and remember that you will only find value betting situations in a small number of games. Betting the entire NBA schedule every week is a risky proposition at best.
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